CONNECTING
THE DOTS
© Morris E. Ruddick
September 11, 2001 marked the abrupt
entrance into a time of change. It was a momentous paradigm shift.
While the jury is still out on the
extensive impact of that tragic day, understand that waves of
change will mark the days ahead. More paradigm shifts can be expected.
Paradigm shifts impacting the nature and order of conducting the
business of nations and enterprise.
Changes that impact the foundational
premises driving the infrastructures of the world's major systems.
Significant changes affecting global power, control and resources.
New alliances and conflicts between peoples, organizations, economies
and nations will emerge. Nothing will be quite the same. Reversals,
discontinuities and shortages can be expected. But there will
also be opportunity and areas impervious to the disruptions.
Earlier this year, in an effort to
better understand and anticipate the changes of significance,
the Ruddick Int’l Group launched its sponsorship of a forecast
of change and the issues driving the change. Issues of global
significance.
Our perspective has long been based
on the assumption that geopolitical and economic developments
are driven by subtle religious, ethnic and ideological factors.
This world-view challenges popular geopolitical models and mind-sets
with a radical stance to what we view as the drivers versus the
results of global change.
Our initial panel for this forecast
was organized in August of 2001. Results from the questions posed
to this panel were in by September 5th. The professional backgrounds
of the panelists had a focus of corporate CEOs, executives and
entrepreneurs. There was also representation from administrators,
executives and consultants from humanitarian organizations, government
agencies and politics, technology, the media, education, health
care, finance, and military organizations. Participants in the
panel were from North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa
and Asia.
A series of questions opened with
a request for panelists to rate the importance – the perceived
impact – that 23 individual issues would have on the course
of world events five years from now. The factors included everything
from new technology development to civil unrest, the flow of investment
capital, to e-commerce and media bias.
PANEL RESULTS
The strongest rating went to religious
and ethnic conflicts. That result upholds our premise that geopolitical
and economic developments are driven by subtle religious, ethnic
and ideological factors.
Yet, the panel as a whole gave only
moderate importance to the "impact of terrorist strategies."
Once again, results were all in prior to the September 11th attack.
No doubt THAT will change in subsequent panels.
The importance of the impact that
can be expected from religious and cultural conflicts was followed
closely by the strongly scored factors of globalization; energy
resources; water and food resources; and economic downturns and
disruptions.
These top-line results identify the
primary drivers impacting near-term world events. They indicate
that near-term global developments will pivot on the issues of
religious/cultural struggles; the efforts of increasingly more
groups to operate and impact things globally; the availability
of resources; and economic discontinuities.
Another key question asked panelists
to identify what they considered most significant in changing
the nature and order of global relationships and practices. In
order of prominence, this panel’s selection of issues was
as follows:
1. Religious and ethnic conflicts
2. Global resource availability and distribution
3. Technology ownership and the flow of venture and investment
capital
4. Geopolitical alliances, power shifts and regulatory issues.
So, after identifying key issues of
global developments and events, panelists were asked to project
what would be most significant in CHANGING the nature and order
of global relationships and practices. Reinforcing the response
to the most significant issues, the number one factor of future
global change was discerned as being religious and ethnic conflicts.
In concert with the issues identified, the panel indicated next
that global resource availability would bear significantly on
global practices and relations during the near term. This was
followed by new technology ownership, along with those who are
in control of the means to commercialize. And the next factor
the panel projected to impact change in global relationships and
practices was the unfolding of geopolitical alliances, power shifts
and regulatory issues.
So what does this all mean?
First, the balance of power globally,
as well as the nature and order of conducting the business of
nations and enterprise will be strongly influenced by the course
taken by religious, cultural and ideological conflicts. In interpreting
the results within the context of the horrific tragedy of September
11th, this means that the network of terrorists behind these atrocities,
driven by a misguided religious fanaticism, have declared an ideological
war upon the free world. That factor in itself will reshape the
way globalization takes place.
The result is also that the stability
of free world nations has become far more fragile. The impact
of religious and ethnic conflicts on the world’s infrastructures
and economies will no doubt have a rippling effect – leading
to economic disruptions, as well as regional energy, food and
water shortages.
Global relationships will become more
polarized; being strongly impacted by ideological and religious
orientations. Technology and the commercialization process, along
with those who control the resources will become increasingly
significant in determining the associations and alliances that
will make a difference globally.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: UNDERSTANDING THE TIMES AND THE
ISSUES
We have entered a time of unusual
global change. Changes of significance in magnitude. Changes in
the status quo. The pace of change is being quickened. Responding
to change requires change. Adjustments are needed to how we view
and respond to the principles and practices of life and business.
Long ago, it was written that no one
puts new wine into old wineskins. The new wine would burst the
old skins, spilling the wine and ruining the skins. New wine must
be put into new wineskins. The framework of life as we have known
it underwent a major paradigm shift on September 11th. The framework
of response will require new wineskins to be able to handle the
impact of the incredible transition we have experienced. News
forms to handle new functions. The change emerging addresses the
very principles and values upon which the free world is based.
The change is upon us and can no longer be ignored or swept under
the rug.
Religious and Ethnic Conflicts
This religious/ideological
war, driven by Islamic radicals, has been underway for some time.
The war declared by Mr. Bush after the murderous attack on September
11th, was simply a recognition and response to the unmasking and
manifestation of an existing war. A war that most within the free
world have wanted to ignore or chalk up to being isolated happenstances
conducted by independent “extremists.” It is and has
been a movement, rather than the criminal activities of individuals
and splinter groups.
The magnitude of this movement, as
evidenced by the deadly, coordinated scheme of September 11th,
no longer allows the matter being swept under the rug. It is rightly
perceived as a concerted trans-national effort, that is challenging
the free world. It is the movement behind the actions that misappropriated
and nationalized oil operations that began in 1951 in Iran. It
is the same initiative behind the Iranian revolution and declarations
of Jihad that resulted in 52 US diplomatic personnel being seized
and held captive. It is the same movement reflected by the Palestinian
hijacking and killings in the late 60s. It comprises the same
objective behind Iraq’s attempt to win control of the oil-rich
lands of Kuwait and Saudi-Arabia. It reflects the same cowardice
that took the innocent lives of the passengers in TWA flight 800
over Long Island Sound. And, it is unquestionably the same conflict
that has raged against Israel since their independence in 1948.
The movement is one to mobilize the
radical segments of Islam to seize control of the Western world.
Control of the free world with its Judeo-Christian foundations.
With this initiative in mind, a glimpse at Israel is important
to understanding future implications of this movement. It is essential
in forecasting ensuing global trends for our day.
Key Free-World Forecast Indicator.
Israel is a bellwether nation. For the most part, Israel’s
cultural ideologies are forerunners to what can be expected for
the free world. Economically, for such a small nation, Israel
is an aberration, an anomaly within the Western world. Its impact
on global markets during recent years is nothing short of astounding.
Its venture capital market has been second only to what has been
coming from Silicon Valley. The economic, judicial and governmental
systems of the free world are derivations drawn from Hebrew tradition
and culture. For those interested in what the future holds for
the free world, Israel bears watching.
The counterpoint to everything Israel
represents is the Islamic tradition. This should not be construed
as an anti-Arab statement. It is not at all intended that way.
But most growth within the Islamic movement represents a dramatic
counterpoint to the foundations of Western civilization. It is
a fact. Globally, Islam is comprised of four factions. Two of
those factions are radical, and bent upon the annihilation of
not only what they refer to as the Christian and Jewish infidels,
but the entire Judeo-Christian way of life. These two radical
sects of Islam are represented by roughly half the world-wide
Muslim population.
These radical segments of Islam represent
a multi-national movement attributing the “bad” of
their lifestyles to Jews and Christians. A movement calling for
the elimination of Jews and Christians – and with that Americans.
A movement unashamedly training children to be terrorists. A movement
whose masses actively danced with joy upon getting the news of
the calamity of September 11th. The hostile, lawless factions
of Islam represent a bottomless pit that is hostile to the values,
ideals and way of life of the free world. It is outright anarchy
in the worst sense. Lawlessness is lawlessness. There is not good
and bad terrorism. You don’t negotiate, appease and do business
with terrorists.
This is a force that will either have
to be resisted or we will be dominated by it. This is a reality.
This is a stark reality that Western governments and businesses
must begin factoring into their planning and decision-making.
It is also a key factor in evaluating the nature and course to
be expected from world events.
The Objective Versus The Strategy.
It needs to be recognized that terrorism is the strategy. The
objective is free world domination. The struggle against terrorism
is grounded in a clash of cultures, as seen through our forecast.
It is a clash of cultures, that can be dealt with ultimately only
by addressing it on its own level – ideologically and spiritually.
There may be of necessity military, economic and political responses.
But realistically speaking the REAL long-term war will be the
one waged on the ideological and spiritual level. And THAT is
the wake-up call, we within Western civilization need to embrace.
Understanding the foundations to the
ideals and way of life of the free world will be essential to
preserving freedom and the positive tenants of free enterprise.
This will involve a re-orientation from the political correct
mind-set, which challenges or otherwise negates these spiritual
and moral values and traditions. We have entered an era in which
the “middle ground” is radically shrinking. And those
proponents of the way of life of the free world need to clearly
understand the distinctions and consequences to the sides in this
division. It’s time to stop apologizing for what we stand
for. We need to understand the times, to know what to do.
Globalization
Panelists selected globalization
as the second most important driver impacting the course of near-term
world events. There is no question that the world is shrinking
and becoming integrally connected. The most obvious initiative
in globalization is the spread of Western culture and enterprise.
An initiative that carries strong ideological implications. However,
there is a counter movement underway in this globalization. It
is strongly evidenced in Europe, Africa, North American, Asia,
as well as the Middle East. It is the manifestation of the growth
of an anti-Western, anti-American segment of Islam. This is not
a splinter group, but a significant segment of Islam. A movement
whose adherents responded to the World Trade Center massacre by
celebrating and dancing in the streets -- from upscale districts
in Cairo, to Palestinian settlements in Israel, to the streets
of those the US calls Middle Eastern allies, to Central Asia.
It is a global movement that is against the very way of life represented
by those who come from a Judeo-Christian heritage.
Because of the anti Judeo-Christian
nature of this religious/cultural war, I project another dimension
that can be expected from this emerging conflict. There will come
alliances between totalitarian regimes, current and former communists
and Islamics. Apart from the terrorist uprisings, THESE alliances
will be economic in nature. While expediency of the US military
response to the September 2001 attack calls for the gathering
of precarious coalitions, as time progresses the middle-ground
will shrink with the dividing line becoming more distinct. The
dividing line between the free world and those opposing the free
world. There are similarly destabilizing issues emerging holding
the potential of shifts of power within heretofore free nations
resulting in divisions between key Western nations. The upshot
will be further destabilization economically.
Again, it is important to recognize
the difference between the objectives and the strategies in evaluating
responses. These changes will not be driven by civil unrest. Civil
unrest is a strategy being fueled to serve the objectives of the
war being waged against the Western world. The changes ahead will
not be driven the disparity between the rich and poor. These changes
will be driven by the ideological war that has already been underway,
that was unmasked by the mass murder of thousands of innocent
people on September 11th. There is a wedge firmly in place between
the free world and those opposing the free world. The issue of
civil unrest and the disparity between the rich and the poor are
the result of the ideological guerilla warfare the Western world
has been unwilling to come to grips with, until now.
Resources and Economic Disruptions
Conflicts will take
on new dimensions beyond military might. As already noted, they
will also be economic. With that, is the strong probability of
discontinuities erupting over critical resources, especially those
of oil and water. Currently Russia/CIS and friendly Islamic nations
hold the preponderance of the world’s current known oil
and gas reserves. There is a shakiness in the Western world’s
alliances with these nations which in turn is tied to the balance
of power tied to the supply and the price of energy commodities.
Some of these major energy producers have entered into the coalition
against terrorism for expediency. And some very reluctantly. At
best these alliances are fragile and temporary. OPEC and former
communist states bear watching.
Similarly, many of the anti-Western
rogue movements are being financed by a well-developed global
drug trade. A drug trade with trade routes and networks extending
from South America to Africa to Asia. A drug trade that puts this
extensive anti-Western network of Islamic radicals in business
with compartmentalized networks of the criminal underground. Networks
of corruption whose objectives are not only to fuel and finance
their evil efforts, but to undermine the systems and infrastructures
of the free world. These alliances represent significant destabilizing
factors and will have their impact on free world economies.
Geopolitical alliances, power shifts and regulatory issues
As global seats of power
and alliances undergo unexpected shifts and alignments, the emerging
dynamic of economies without borders will result in relationships
and opportunities transcending the norm. Decentralization of activities
will result in entrepreneurial endeavors thriving. Unique systems
of distribution will result in the emergence of alternate economic
systems. Systems that bypass the constraints and order sought
by treaties, alliances, regulatory issues and cartels. Again,
there will be power shifts that come from agreements between transnational
groups. Power shifts that create opportunity for some, with disruptions
for others. Simultaneously, technology will play an important
role for not only the free-world, but for new forms of both provincial
and transnational approaches to mercantilism.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS: KNOWING WHAT TO DO
Realigning Mind-Sets and World Views
Knowing what to do, begins with realigning our world-views. Our
mind-sets. There is a need for a war time mentality. A mind-set
that approaches relationships, opportunity and basic operations
recognizing that these are critical, pivotal and perilous times.
The margin for error is much less than it has been in the past.
Wartime is a serious and sobering time. It’s not a time
to assume.
It is a time to move onto the offensive.
This means more decentralization. More cooperation. More security.
Adjusting to the realities of the
day will involve a need to recognize the enemy. It is unfortunate
that the Western world, in its good intentions to foster peace,
avoid conflict and appease, has largely overlooked the reality
of an emerging enemy. It is also unfortunate that the enemy the
West has failed to recognize has long viewed the West as its enemy
– and has been unwavering in its single-minded pursuit of
its objectives, with the shrewd utilization of its strategies.
In an editorial by Forbes magazine publisher (The Enemy Beneath,
Forbes October 15, 2001), Rich Karlgaard observes:
What worries me most about Osama bin Laden and this network of
terror is that it is following the Silicon Valley model of decentralization
and disruption. Think of bin Laden as a venture capitalist –
the venture capitalist of murder and global terror. Like any other
successful venture capitalist, he attracts people willing to commit
their lives. He doles out money, but only in dribs. He demands
that his ventures, if you’ll permit me to call them such,
stay lean, squeeze pennies and meet milestones. Above all, they
must change the rules of engagement. Through clenched teeth one
is forced to admit that bin Laden gets bang for his buck. It’s
what Fairchild did. It’s what Apple did. It’s what
Microsoft did.
When we knocked out the Soviet Union,
we did so by harnessing entrepreneurship and decentralization.
Sure we had a Pentagon, and more important a President and Secretary
of Defense in the 1980s with iron wills. But the chip figures
hugely here. It gave our military a decisive advantage over theirs.
Yet it was invented by young men in a little shed 3,000 miles
away. Nobody from the top planned it.
Now we have an enemy who attacks us
from below using disruptive and centralized techniques. This puts
America in an odd position. I don’t like the looks of this.
Seeing how crazy and scattered entrepreneurs have beaten the crap
out of monoliths over the last 44 years in almost every field,
I don’t like the situation. Not one bit. I have no doubt
America will prevail in the end, if only because more people in
the world want our lifestyle than want theirs. We have the world
on our side. But the actual terms of engagement work against us.
For some time, it’s going to be ugly.
In recognizing the enemy, it will
be important to maintain the perspective of the spiritual foundation
to this battle. We need to grasp the nature and order of this
war. The playing field the enemy has chosen to operate on. The
rules of engagement. Their infrastructure needs to be recognized
and uncovered. Their hidden activities need to be brought to light.
The propaganda war needs to be neutralized. Similarly, in our
own planning we need to have watchtowers built. We need to provide
a means of early warning. We need to bolster security, with new,
more effective means of protection. And we need to employ effectual
means of masking our own intentions and diverting the intentions
of the enemy.
A realistic war-time mind-set must
recognize that what we are facing is an unconventional warfare
setting. There will indeed be conventional elements to it, but
the central thread of the enemy is one of unconventional tactics
and warfare. One that does not play by the rules. One bent upon
undermining our way of life. We are operating in an environment
of guerrilla warfare and terrorist activities. Responding will
incorporate a mind-set reflecting counter-insurgency tactics and
strategies.
Foundational Proactive Initiatives
The response of the
free world has got to go beyond the military and economic responses
of nations. Counter-responses must involve a pivotal role from
the world of business. This means a re-evaluation of the support
of initiatives that in the long-term feeds anarchy.
Knowing what to do will
involve an adjustment to blindly submitting to what has prevailed
as political correctness. Political correctness has taken a turn.
Political correctness needed to take a turn. Political correctness
cannot be dictated by the media elite. Business needs become more
pro-active. Business needs to be buying advertising in media venues
which not only targets potential buyers, but advertising that
promotes and supports the future of the opportunities represented
by the values and foundations of the Judeo-Christian heritage.
Heretofore, corporate responsibility
has been primarily driven by the precepts of political correctness;
by lofty ideals rather than practical realities. Corporate philanthropy
needs to re-evaluate.
Knowing what to do will
involve addressing the issue of poverty realistically. Giving
focus to humanitarian efforts that engender lasting solutions.
Indeed, providing aid in crisis situations, but for the most part
imparting the basic principles needed in support of micro-enterprises
and entrepreneurial opportunities. Solutions that foster right
values and family and community relationships.
The faith-initiatives move presents
principles that are worthy of being embraced. In light of the
September 2001 paradigm shift, the faith-initiatives effort holds
fresh potential for cooperative marketplace, governmental and
faith-based efforts. Efforts involving cooperative and shared
agendas between governmental, business and faith-based organizations.
Cooperative alliances, agendas and programs serving communities
experiencing adversities, distress, hardships and disasters. Agendas
and programs with pro-active solutions. Solutions that provide
short-term crisis-level aid, but also follow the premise of teaching
a man to fish, rather than leaving him with a fish only to be
hungry again the next day. Alliances that serve our own communities,
but also offer programs outside our borders. Programs that indeed
help while establishing dignity and the bonding of relationships.
Programs designed to foster the freedoms and values represented
by the heritage shared by the free world.
Technology, the Flow of Capital and Entrepreneurialism
Knowing what to do will
result in aggressively promoting the principles of entrepreneurialism.
The local, provincial nature of entrepreneurialism, coupled with
advances in communication, transportation and distribution will
result in a variety of alternatives in bringing products to market.
Alternatives representing potential and opportunity that will
bypass traditional methods. Technology, entrepreneurialism and
new sources of funding will find common ground. They will open
the way for unusual opportunities in times of adversity. Opportunity,
that in many ways will be impervious the disruptions in traditional
approaches to the nature and order of conducting business.
A recently released book entitled
Entrepreneurs: Talent, Temperament and Technique (Bolton and Thompson,
Butterworth and Heinemann Publishing, Oxford) states that “entrepreneurship
is the single, most important factor in deciding whether or not
a region or community achieves its full potential, both economically
and socially.” This observation is true whether you are
dealing with prosperous areas or deprived ones, whether it involves
the developed world or the developing world. The authors point
out that entrepreneurs are making the difference in regions as
diverse as the Silicon Valley and the Central African Republic.
In application, the principles are the same.
Their penetrating analysis notes that
“entrepreneurship also determines whether successful regions
stay that way. Businesses and societies are able to continue fairly
well until they are threatened by change.” And change is
certainly the byword, with the paradigm and power shifts taking
place across the globe.
So who is the entrepreneur? Here’s
the Bolton/Thompson definition:
An entrepreneur is a person who habitually
creates and innovates to build something of recognized value around
perceived opportunities.
Entrepreneurialism reflects not only
the sound principles behind the establishment of startup operations,
but represents a counterpoint to stodgy corporate bureaucracy,
in which the reinvigoration of life is infused into the programs
and policies of large organizations. It involves the establishment
of business incubators. It is also closely tied to innovation
and technology. The entrepreneurial organization – however
large or small – fosters the development and commercialization
of technological innovations. Entrepreneurialism is fueled by
and capitalizes on change.
After Sam Walton of Wal-Mart stores
had 78 of their huge chain of stores in place, it took him ten
years to build to the point of doing $150 million annually in
revenues. BUT, with one warehouse and one web site, Amazon.Com
did the same thing in just three years. E-Commerce is bringing
about radical change in the nature and order of doing business.
For the first time in history, with very little capital down,
a global business can be established from any point in the globe
that is connected to the internet. Customer mailing lists are
available. Web sites can attract customers from all over the world.
Despite the upsets and disruptions, we have entered a time replete
with new paradigms for pursuing opportunity.
Micro-enterprises represent a very
basic form of entrepreneurialism AND an important alternate economic
system. Micro-enterprises can take a variety of forms. Micro-enterprise
programs are proving successful in areas that are otherwise experiencing
economic downturns. They can be individual or home-based enterprises,
like a seamstress shop in a village. Or a vendor on a local or
city street corner. The concept of micro-enterprises may involve
neighborhood or community-run businesses established in economically
distressed areas, with distribution outlets operating outside
the distressed area.
Community Builders. The opportunity
for entrepreneurial pursuits parallels and is a part of community
building. Historically, the US was built on these values and principles.
Values and principles tied to what many have referred to as rugged
individualism. Not to be confused with the type of independence
reflected by unconcerned self-interest. We each are a part of
something much larger. Responding to the movement bent on destroying
the West’s way of life, will involve both a return to the
basics that gave rise to this way of life. If there is to be a
common thread operating within the faith-initiatives activities,
it is community building. Re-embracing the values that are foundational
to what made America become known as the land of the free and
home of the brave. Businesses need to operate on the basis of
and become pro-active advocates of community building. Promoting
the essence of what was needed to successfully birth and grow
communities during America’s settlement years. These were
community ventures that served. Ventures that were in touch. People
ventures. People who operated on the principles of caring, commitment,
determination, innovation, risk, vision, and solid community and
spiritual values.
Embracing our Roots
Knowing what to do in
the tenuous times we have entered, will incorporate a return to
the basics of our culture and ideologies. We need to return to
the God of our fathers. The God of the Judeo-Christian faith.
The war unleashed against us is designed to annihilate Christians
and Jews; and to undermine the way of life we have taken for granted.
The Koran is laced with admonitions to wage war and to kill Christians
and Jews. Love is not mentioned once in the Koran. We need to
become unapologetic in the distinctives of the Judeo-Christian
heritage and our individual faith. In the distinctives representing
the foundations to our way of life. Christians need to once again
become familiar with the rich heritage evident in the Jewish roots
to the Christian faith. Jews need to recognize the shared beliefs
and values Christians have in the T’nach (Old Testament)
and the difference between Churchianity (the intellectualizing
and practice of religion without an authentic, committed faith)
and those who are genuine Believers.
On August 29th, Michael Freund, former
deputy director of Communications and Policy Planning for Israel’s
Prime Minister's Office wrote with prophetic overtones in the
Jerusalem Post. He observed that the issues being faced by Israel’s
battle against terrorism is one faced by the free world. His admonition
was that we have tried everything else. It is now time, for Jews
and Christians alike, to turn to prayer. He wrote that:
Modern solutions have failed us miserably in recent years, with
diplomacy and statesmanship bringing us all to the edge of the
abyss. Perhaps it is time to do what people in trouble have always
done in their hour of need – turn to their Father in Heaven
and plead for help. The Palestinians are now openly declaring
that we are all potential targets.
Mr. Freund quoted the leader of the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine saying, “The
flames shall reach every Zionist everywhere.”
Mr. Freund concluded with: “The
fact is that for the past decade, we have given politics a chance,
and it has failed us. Now is the time to give God a chance, for
unlike politicians, He can always be relied upon to keep His word.”
Uncanny, timely words of insight and
wisdom. Israel is indeed a bellwether nation within the free world.
Knowing what to do will
involve strengthening one’s individual faith, and finding
the common ground on which to strengthen the roots shared in our
Judeo-Christian heritage. Christians and Jews alike need to return
and embrace the wisdom of the ages found in the Bible; as well
as regularly turning to prayer. There is a need to de-secularize
our faith in the Lord, and began digging into the rich heritage
and values that have made the free world so distinctively to stand
apart from the world of despots, crooks and radicals. We need
to continue operating in unity with a sense of purpose that supercedes
our individual frames of reference. A sense of purpose that gives
heed to restructuring and restoring rather than just capitalizing
on the momentum by riding the wave. A sense of purpose that understands,
recognizes and responds to the realities and needs unfolding in
the big picture.
As the writer said, these are times
that try men’s souls. And what is before us is a very real
battle that is clearly spiritual and ideological in nature. A
battle requiring, amidst everything else, a spiritual and ideological
response.
CONCLUSIONS
In review, our perspective concludes
that geopolitical and economic developments of this day are being
driven by subtle religious, ethnic and ideological factors. This
world-view reverses the stance of popular notions of geopolitical
models and mind-sets with regard to what are viewed as the drivers
versus the results of global change. Enduring and realistic answers
will begin with an understanding that the central issue is a religious-ideological
conflict between Western civilization and forces that want to
dominate and destroy it.
Beware of the propaganda machine that
will evolve. It will be subtle. Not at all unlike the propaganda
machine of Nazi Germany, which specialized in the concepts of
the big lie and stereotyping to confuse and tie up policy coordination
among the Allies. Like the bogus reports that went out blaming
Israel for the World Trade Center tragedy. Be wary of the dissinformation
to come. It will go well beyond an anti-American slant, as its
purpose is to destroy a way of life.
Recognize there can no longer be neutral
ground. During WWII Switzerland claimed neutrality, and that neutrality
served to extend the war against Hitler by two years. No more
fence-sitters, either nationally or individually. The battle lines
have been drawn. Appeasement serves only to foster the enemy’s
objectives. Understanding the enemy and the rules of engagement
is not an option for corporate decision circles in the days ahead.
Watch developments with Israel. As
a pivotal bellwether nation for the free-world, events in Israel
portend developments that can be expected to ripple, sometimes
with subtlety, sometimes with abruptness, throughout the rest
of the Western world. Simultaneously, alliances and ventures with
Israel will be harbingers for opportunity in global markets that
are becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Expect paradigm shifts in the status
quo of what has previously been considered the solid ground of
business opportunity. Keep an eye to entrepreneurially-driven
ventures – especially those that reflect innovations that
can provide positive impact to community settings. Likewise, there
will be key technologies that come forth providing solutions that
bypass problems that beset the basic infrastructures undergirding
the free-world systems. The flow of capital will take on unorthodox
directions and dimensions.
Fluctuations in the pricing and availability
of key resources – energy, food and water – will gain
in focus in the days ahead. Once again, technology development
and ownership, along with the flow of capital will experience
shifts in both the paradigms and seats of power that have heretofore
controlled them.
On September 11th, 2001, religious
and cultural dividing lines were drawn challenging the foundational
values undergirding free enterprise and the societal freedoms
Western society has come to take for granted. Responding realistically
will involve a return to the foundations and values that gave
rise to this way of life. The underlying drivers and issues for
this day are spiritual and ideological. Without any apology, the
Western world needs to return to the Lord. There is a need to
acknowledge and embrace the spiritual and ideological roots of
what gave rise to the distinctives that mark the difference between
the free world and the non-free world. Embracing those distinctives
will distinguish those who are at the forefront of the change
and those who are whiplashed by it.
May God help us.
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